Claudia Sheinbaum and Mexico’s new regime in formation

On June 2, Mexicans went to the polls and made history by electing Claudia Sheinbaum of the MORENA party (Movement of National Regeneration) as Mexico’s first woman president. Claudia Sheinbaum took 61 percent of the vote and sailed to victory with an ample margin of 28 percent over her closest opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, of the conservative alliance “Strength and Heart for Mexico.” The opposition ran a lackluster campaign and tried to undermine Sheinbaum’s candidacy, decrying a shift towards authoritarianism. When that didn’t work, they resorted to a virulent smear campaign prompted by DEA reports that insinuated a link between drug cartels and the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, better known as AMLO.

Nevertheless, AMLO’s popularity and mostly favorable performance in government over the last six years bolstered Sheinbam’s success. Since the campaign began, opinion polls consistently gave Sheinbaum the presidency and only the margin of victory was up for debate. Eventually, the focus shifted to the Senate and the governors’ races. Sheinbaum won the popular vote in 31 out of 32 states. MORENA also won 7 out of the 9 governors’ races, maintaining control in Puebla, Tabasco, Morelos, Chiapas, Veracruz, Mexico City, and Yucatán, a former stronghold of the opposition. MORENA’s alliance with the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM) and the Party of Labor (PT) performed so well that it won a qualified majority (two-thirds of seats) in both the Chamber of Deputies (the lower house) and the Senate and gave AMLO enough power to make substantial changes to the Mexican Constitution. Currency markets and financial institutions reacted immediately to the news, with the Mexican peso losing 2 percent of its value against the dollar, reflecting capitalist fears of significant change to come.

As we have argued before, since 2018, AMLO has been building a new political regime and pursuing a political-development project dubbed the Fourth Transformation (4T). However, AMLO’s so-called “Fourth Transformation” is not as radical as it may seem, and while there is a considerable difference in the way the government communicates, handles public finances, and implements public policy, the 4T has fallen short of the radical transformation AMLO touts.  Overall, the 4T is a strategy to develop Mexico as an advanced capitalist economy with a better negotiating position in the North American and global markets.

Claudia Sheinbaum represents a continuity of this project, as she will try to consolidate a new hegemonic regime of a neoliberal-progressive character. Since she has weaker links to the base of the party and the popular sectors she has relied heavily on AMLO’s support as she takes office, and her biggest challenges will be maintaining the coalition that AMLO built to push through the 4T.

Who is Claudia Sheinbaum?

As preliminary results came in on Election Day, global news outlets began to announce that Mexico’s next president would be a woman. The fascination with this historic event led to an interest in the new president: What is her background and how would she continue or differ from AMLO’s project?

Claudia Sheinbaum comes from a political and academic family with links to the Communist Party of Mexico. As a member of the University Student Council movement (CEU) at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in the late 1980s, Sheinbaum also participated in struggles against privatization and for access to higher education. Throughout the 1990s, she dedicated herself to academic work in energy engineering, completed graduate research at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and in 2007, her work with the IPCC received the Nobel Prize.

Her experience in the CEU also exposed her to electoral reform movements in Mexican politics, including the 1989 founding of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)—a split from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and sections of the Mexican Left. Through these experiences, she met AMLO, and when he was elected mayor of Mexico City in 2000, she formed part of his administration as Secretary of the Environment. Afterwards, she helped found the MORENA party and then returned to public office as mayor of Tlalpan in 2015 with MORENA. Finally, in 2018, she became Head of Government of Mexico City, the highest electoral office before the presidency. While in office she successfully executed projects in public transit and renewable energy, but was widely criticized by housing activists for a partnership with Airbnb to bring digital nomads to Mexico City.

Her political leanings are broadly characterized as progressive, humanist, and center-left. Along with AMLO, she is a proponent of “Mexican Humanism,” a reformist orientation that taps into Mexico’s liberal-humanist values. In its best version, the discourse of the Fourth Transformation is guided by these ideals to construct something like a Scandinavian social-democratic welfare state. But in reality, it’s a cheap imitation of that.

Mexican Humanism is loosely deployed with a new slogan of “Shared Prosperity,” a formula embraced by Sheinbaum in which big business and the poor benefit from economic growth and “development.” This translates to more infrastructural access, government stipends, and slightly higher-paying jobs with a loose commitment to worker prosperity. Nevertheless, while the government has increased the minimum wage, Mexicans still have the lowest wages of all OECD countries.

Sheinbaum has committed herself to building “the second floor” of AMLO’s Fourth Transformation (4T), which will consolidate megaprojects across the country and expand public infrastructures, such as new power plants and passenger railroads. Although she is closely aligned with AMLO, she is not a puppet. As an energy scientist, she will likely pursue renewable energy and support programs for women more seriously than her predecessor.  In her campaign slogans, Sheinbaum used the slogan, “It’s the time for women” and offered economic aid to women over 60 who work in the home. She also says she will have a woman’s sensibility as she approaches social and scientific issues. It remains to be seen whether she seeks a rapprochement with the women’s movement, which was ridiculed and marginalized by AMLO. 

Despite a stellar record in public service, Sheinbaum’s selection as presidential nominee came about after a contested “survey” in her party dogged with allegations of corruption. Furthermore, figures close to her have a shady past, such as the former Secretary of Security of Mexico City, Omar García Harfuch, who comes from a family of state security officers. In 2014, Harfuch was head of the Federal Police in Guerrero during the disappearance of the 43 students of the Ayotzinapa teachers college. He always maintained that he was absent during these tragic events, and his proximity to MORENA shielded him from further scrutiny. Although Harfuch had the support of Sheinbaum to run as head of government of Mexico City, his ties to the Ayotzinapa case and the lack of a popular profile, led to his defeat by Clara Brugada, a MORENA nominee from the working-class borough of Iztapalapa.

Overall, Claudia Sheinbaum represents a continuity of the leadership around AMLO, but she has weaker links to the base of the party and therefore depends heavily on the figure of AMLO for political clout. As she takes office, one of her biggest challenges will be maintaining the coalition that AMLO built and pushing through the “second floor” of the 4T.

What happened to the right-wing opposition?

Meanwhile, the opposition, composed of the National Action Party (PAN), PRI, and PRD, has been in crisis since they lost the presidential election to AMLO in 2018. Recall that Mexico’s “democratic transition” from one-party rule culminated with the election of Vicente Fox of the conservative PAN in 2000. The PAN ruled from 2000-2012, infamously unleashing the ongoing war on drugs in 2006. Disillusioned with PAN governments, the Mexican electorate brought the PRI back into office with the fraudulent election of Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN) in 2012. By 2018, the neoliberal PRI-PAN regime was exhausted after facing mounting corruption scandals, abuses of power, and crises of governability, most notably months of national protests after the disappearance of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa.

Over the next four years, AMLO took advantage of the crumbling reputation of the PRIAN and set out to build an alliance between social movements, political parties, and the upper class to negotiate a transition that led to his election in 2018. Once in office, AMLO accentuated the shortcomings of the opposition, criticizing their neoliberal program and successfully combating them in the press. Although the opposition tried to mobilize astroturf “pro-democracy” marches and virulent smear campaigns on social media (#NarcoPresidente), AMLO was able to deflect these attacks and keep opponents on their toes by setting the pace of the political agenda from his early morning press briefings in the National Palace, the famous mañaneras.

Today’s PRI-PAN-PRD alliance, “Strength and Heart for Mexico,” is headed by incompetent and corrupt party leaders Marko Antonio Cortés (PAN) and Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas (PRI). Under their leadership, both parties have lost midterm elections and their power has dwindled in state and national bodies. For its part, the PRD, a remnant of the left-reformist efforts that didn’t go into MORENA, is politically bankrupt and may lose its party registration altogether. Now in tatters, without leadership and without a program, the “Strength and Heart for Mexico” alliance will have to reinvent itself under a new figure and program, which may come from the far right, though it’s too soon to tell since their recomposition will take years.

Regime change and hegemony

AMLO’s victory in 2018 represents a negotiated transition with ruling elites to save a discredited State after years of social unrest and towards a new accommodationist hegemonic regime of a neoliberal-progressive character. The neoliberal regime that captured the Mexican state in the late 1980s was quickly exhausted after the failed “democratic transition” of 2000, culminating in the crisis of governability under EPN (2012-18). Within three terms, the PRIAN regime became discredited (a decade after the neoliberal economic crisis of 2008). This political-ideological opening allowed AMLO to present himself as the savior of the Mexican State who would hold back popular discontent at a time of widespread crisis of credibility for neoliberal bourgeois institutions around the world.

From the outset, AMLO received support from Mexico’s capitalist class, most notably from Carlos Slim, the richest man in Mexico, and other ruling families that staffed various government posts. After coming to power, AMLO pursued a series of fiscal-monetary policies and megaprojects to reassure foreign capital of Mexico’s sound finances and friendly investment climate throughout the territory. His megaprojects provided a windfall for construction companies and hundreds of thousands of jobs and social programs for local populations, thus fulfilling part of his slogan that “for the good of all, the poor come first.” The results were immediate and MORENA consistently expanded its rule over the territory by winning the midterm elections in 2021.

But do the poor really come first in this new regime in formation? While there have been some substantial improvements for workers, such as higher minimum wage and welfare programs, these redistributive policies don’t get to the root of the problem. As the sociologist Massimo Modonessi argues, AMLO aims to achieve social harmony by “attending to the problem of poverty through a redistribution of the capacity to consume, and to access goods and services, without modifying their systemic causes: exploitation and exclusion.” Citing  Jaime Ortega, Modonessi concludes that “above all, the government of the 4T is a reform of the State, not a destructuring or modification to the market economy nor a clash with the main economic groups.”

It’s indisputable that AMLO and MORENA have taken full advantage of their position in government to quickly establish a politically centrist and organizationally centralist hegemonic regime despite the pandemic. In its first six-year term, MORENA has made history by achieving consistent economic growth, paying national debt, reviving the nationalized oil and energy sector, raising the minimum wage, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), and electing the first woman president. AMLO’s 60 percent approval rating is also due in part to various social programs, including pensions for seniors, scholarships for students, and stipends for farmers. While the regime might not have achieved deep economic transformations, it has deeply transformed the political discourse in the popular imagination. It is safe to say that AMLO’s administration will be remembered for generations in poor families that benefited from these programs. Claudia Sheinbaum’s challenge will be to sustain economic growth, maintain a united political alliance, and deliver for the poor to continue pushing this process forward.

Contradictions in MORENA and its government

While some sectors of the American Left have celebrated Sheinbaum’s victory and uncritically praised MORENA’s project, it is worth giving a critical overview of the Fourth Transformation (4T) to see what Sheinbaum defends. During his six years in the presidency, AMLO has pushed a series of megaprojects, social programs, and government reforms known as the Fourth Transformation.  Sheinbaum has vowed to continue and expand the “second floor” of this project, and while she will give it her own personal stamp, her role will be to consolidate the process that began under AMLO.

The first three transformations AMLO refers to were the Mexican War of Independence against Spain after 1810, the Liberal victory over the Conservative and French forces in the 1860s, and the Mexican Revolution which raged from 1910to 1920. These transformations AMLO invokes to legitimize his project came about through large-scale popular mobilizations to destroy the old order and create a more just society. In today’s regime, the masses are mostly passive and are only called on to vote or to turnout for pro-government demonstrations. At the same time, the new regime has absorbed politicians from the opposition and considerably rehabilitated the military, actions contrary to any real, radical change in Mexico.

From the outset, it’s important to understand that while MORENA may have had roots in the social movements, as the party gained power it lost many of its connections to those movements. For example, local party members are often frustrated that the candidates they nominate for electoral races are sidelined by those appointed by AMLO and his advisors. These days, MORENA is widely criticized in the left-wing Mexican press because the party stays in power by accepting politicians from the opposition with open arms. Most recently, MORENA was criticized for welcoming Alejandra del Moral from the PRI cadre in the state of Mexico. In addition, the party depends on alliances with opportunist parties like the PVEM, a “Green” party run by a rich family and former ally of the PRI, and the PT, an electoral apparatus without principles run by undemocratic union leaders and elite families. Thus, we can see that while MORENA does have popular support, it maintains power by co-opting movements, buying out politicians, and making  alliances with opportunist parties.

The Fourth Transformation is also anchored by a series of megaprojects in fossil fuels, transportation, and tourism. For example, AMLO has made it a point to rescue Mexico’s nationalized energy sector by expanding oil production by creating the giant refinery at Dos Bocas in Tabasco state. This refinery will provide energy for the southeast and will be a petrochemical complex that connects the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the Yucatan peninsula. Although Sheinbaum will shift energy policy towards renewable energies, fossil fuels will remain a pillar of the economy (and the national budget). The Interoceanic Railroad and the Mayan Train also form part of the 4T projects. The Interoceanic railroad aims to steal traffic from the Panama Canal and to detonate free trade zones in Oaxaca and Veracruz. The Mayan Train, widely criticized for its environmental impacts, aims to expand mass tourism away from the beaches of Cancun and towards new destinations in the peninsula.

These national projects, along with airports, hotels, railroads, and a new airline, will be managed by the military and the marines through the state-owned Olmeca-Maya-Mexica corporation. These projects have already received national security status so the military patrols these infrastructures. While AMLO’s administration has argued that these projects rescue Mexico’s national energy sovereignty, they actually consolidate the United States’ energy interests in the region. For example, the Plan Sonora consists of solar power plants and lithium mining to provide natural resources for the Taiwanese chip manufacturer, TSMC now setting up factories in Arizona thanks to the CHIPS Act, which is part of the US’s larger initiative to use  science and technology policy to counter China.

Claudia Sheinbaum will also have to oversee and enforce US immigration policy at the northern and southern borders, deploying the military (National Guard) to stop migrants from Central and South America who are trying to cross to the US. Migrants will have to deal more with Mexican Immigration Services and the National Guard, in addition to the US’s ICE and Border Patrol. Lastly, while AMLO has pursued a progressive foreign policy of unity towards Latin American governments, the same solidarity isn’t offered to others. For example, the Mexican government only recently joined the South African case against Israel in the International Court of Justice.

Overall, the government is removed from social movements and MORENA’s ascent to power has marginalized the radical Left. And so, the Left needs to build with the women’s movement, labor, indigenous peoples’ movements, and environmental campaigns that remain active outside MORENA. The challenge for the radical Left and its allies will be to articulate an independent political pole to the left of AMLO.

Looking ahead

Claudia Sheinbaum likely will consolidate the so-called “second floor” of the Fourth Transformation. As Sheinbaum prepares to take over from AMLO, the president is already pushing the so-called “Plan C” to protect some of AMLO’s social programs and State entities through Constitutional Reform. This will entail protecting the state energy company, the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), and expanding the state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), under Constitutional amendments. Social programs and financial aid for seniors, students, and people with disabilities will also be enshrined in the Constitution through this process.

While Sheinbaum will support AMLO’s protection of the nationalized fossil fuel industry, she will put her own stamp on energy policy and push for renewable energy and transportation projects. Sheinbaum has already tested some initiatives during her tenure in Mexico City and projects in solar energy, EV batteries, and biofuel energy are already operating, providing models for future projects. For example, under Sheinbaum, the state’s research and development agency, the National Council for Humanities, Science and Technology (Conahcyt) will become a federal entity with a larger share of the national budget.

In the economic realm, Sheinbaum will seek to take advantage of the US-China rivalry and will continue to position Mexico as a go-between for Chinese and American manufacturers. This means that in some respects, Mexico will ally itself squarely with US policies, such as the Plan Sonora discussed above, which seeks to provide solar energy and lithium for a new microchip plant under construction in Arizona. In other sectors, Mexico will accept Chinese investments under US scrutiny to export goods to North America within the free trade framework of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

However, there remains doubt among economists if Mexico will be able to cash in on the speculation of nearshoring since foreign companies haven’t shifted factories to Mexico as fast as the government would have liked. As Reuters reported, Mexico’s advantages in attracting foreign companies are diminishing. For example, industrial space is hard to find and becoming more expensive. The price of cement, steel, and land is also increasing and the surge in the peso and a higher minimum wage could also deter investors. Sheinbaum’s administration will have to solve these dilemmas all while delivering on promises made to the working class that elected her.

Featured image credit: Eneas de Troya via Flikr; modified by Tempest.

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