{"id":13678,"date":"2025-02-11T19:44:40","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T00:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/?p=13678"},"modified":"2025-02-19T15:39:18","modified_gmt":"2025-02-19T20:39:18","slug":"imperial-poison-in-russian-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/2025\/02\/imperial-poison-in-russian-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"Imperial poison in Russian politics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"dropcap\">I<\/span> came to left-wing political life in 1989. It was a time of deep crisis in the Soviet Union and the beginning of a painful process of neoliberal reform. There were no members of the Communist Party in my family, but my family held socialist views, and I started reading Marxist literature early. I saw that after a short period of democracy, after the fall of the Soviet Union, a dictatorship would be established in our country. There is no democracy when property is concentrated in the hands of oligarchs.<\/p>\n<p>I organized meetings against neoliberal reforms. I also organized strikes in factories and helped bring legal actions in defense of social and democratic rights. In 1994 my fellow-countrymen supported me for the first time in the elections to the regional legislature. In 1999, I was elected\u00a0 to the State Duma, and I worked as a member of parliament for 30 years. Of course, we had problems with electoral fraud, but a wide network of grassroots movements of trade-unionists, housing activists, animal rights activists, and others allowed us to successfully resist these obstacles.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s important to note that I have been based in the city and region of Astrakhan, a multinational southern region on the Caspian Sea. One third of our one million inhabitants are Muslims. Astrakhan is an old trading city with a tradition of dialogue between people of different ethnicities and religions. My experience of representing the people of Astrakhan, and being an activist in the region, has been important to my own political development and outlook.<\/p>\n<p>But many things changed in 2022. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the Putin government overwhelmingly relied upon military conscripts and recruits, including Astrakhan. Over four thousand men from my region were sent to fight in Ukraine. As of today, more than six hundred have been killed. This imperialist invasion changed the politics of Russia and Astrakhan too. How do we explain what happened to Russian society, and what should we expect next?<\/p>\n<h4>The anti-war party<\/h4>\n<p>As a general matter, Russian polls should be treated with skepticism. Public opinion polls are conducted in conditions in which open anti-war positions carry the risk of serious fines and even criminal prosecution. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.ovdinfo.org\/persecution-anti-war-movement-report-two-years-russias-full-scale-invasion-ukraine\">Over twenty thousand <\/a>Russians have been\u00a0 detained or fined and hundreds have been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/latest\/news\/2024\/06\/russia-authorities-punishing-imprisoned-anti-war-critics-and-dissenters-by-denying-family-contact\/\">sent to prison for years<\/a> for their anti-war views. Those who are labelled \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/news\/2024\/09\/19\/foreign-agent-laws-authoritarian-playbook\">foreign agents<\/a>,\u201d like me, lose the opportunity to work, and their property may be confiscated by the state. Nonetheless, the results of national public polls on current opinions about the invasion and war can be very helpful in understanding political dynamics in Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Before looking at the polls, it is also necessary to understand something about the different entities that conduct themOne example is Tzargrad, a holding company owned by an infamous far-right oligarch <a href=\"https:\/\/novayagazeta.eu\/articles\/2022\/08\/10\/press-the-tsar-button\">Konstantin Malofeev<\/a>, which runs the Tsargrad TV channel. Malofeev is a right-wing Russian nationalist who works closely with the dictatorship and supports the building of prisons and the execution of dissidents. He has founded groups like the Russian Society of Philanthropists for the Protection of Motherhood and Childhood and the Safe Internet League, a pro-censorship organization.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"pullquote\">Over twenty thousand Russians have been\u00a0 detained or fined and hundreds have been sent to prison for years for their anti-war views. Those who are labelled \u201cforeign agents,\u201d like me, lose the opportunity to work, and their property may be confiscated by the state. <\/aside>\n<p>In April 2023, a little more than a year after the Russian invasion, the pro-regime, far-right Tzargrad, <a href=\"http:\/\/katehon.com\/ru\/article\/socopros-instituta-cargrada-ob-otnoshenii-k-svo?ysclid=lmeo6ocv3x458587053&amp;fbclid=IwAR2ZQVHSBHKHHDZ0HF2RMXMGbdJWPuJde4Qg-nJhgKOVwzDxiLKI7sh3E-U\">showed that<\/a> only 37.6 percent of respondents \u201cfully support\u201d the invasion of Ukraine. \u201cPartial support\u201d was at 15.6 percent, putting total support at 50.3 percent. This was against a total of 35 percent opposed to the invasion and war (26.5 percent, wholly in opposition, and 9.1 percent conditionally opposed).<\/p>\n<p>A third of respondents also supported the return of the captured territories to Ukraine and a reinstatement of the January 2022 borders. Considering that the Russian Criminal Code promises 4-year prison terms for damaging the \u201cterritorial integrity of the Russian Federation,\u201d and with the state authorities calling for \u201cthe reunion of this land with the Motherland,\u201d respondents\u2019 anti-war answers were indeed brave acts.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, another 15-20 percent were in favor of returning the occupied lands to Ukraine if this idea was supported by the head of state. And not only Tsargrad shows such data. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.levada.ru\/en\/\">Levada Center is <\/a>an NGO that conducts polling and research and has itself been declared a \u201cforeign agent\u201d by the Russian state. It <a href=\"https:\/\/augean-stables.livejournal.com\/66417.html?ysclid=m664sxqvxd822151959\">estimates <\/a>the level of anti-war sentiment to be as high as 34 percent. The state-owned VCIOM <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ru\/interview\/politics\/30\/09\/2023\/6516d4959a7947607f4970c8?from=copy\">puts opposition to the war at about 20 percent<\/a>. The <a href=\"http:\/\/t.me\/rusbrief\/171002\">net-channel Nezygar<\/a>, at a time when it was closely tied to the Putin administration, noted in the autumn of 2023, that 41 percent of Russians, in retrospect, would not have pursued the so-called \u201cspecial military operation\u201d in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Having reviewed\u00a0 the full scope of polling, I believe about 30 percent of the Russian population are against this war. It is not only liberals or the young but also people on the Left and of all different ages. While not a majority, this is significant opposition. Even in conditions in which they do not have the opportunity to speak openly about their position, this group has proven stable.<\/p>\n<p>These estimates are confirmed by the recent presidential elections in the spring of 2024. My good friend, ex-MP Boris Nadejdin announced his intention to participate in this campaign and he put forward a ceasefire position. Before this he was not a well known politician. But after three weeks he was polling at ten percent support and growing. Of course, his candidacy was quickly declared illegitimate by the Central Election Commission, and he was removed from the ballot.<\/p>\n<h4>Military party<\/h4>\n<p>The other side of the coin to the 30 percent opposed to the war is the wide, sometimes proto-fascist, support for the invasion of Ukraine. In the early days of the invasion, I was shocked. All the country&#8217;s social networks (with the exception of Facebook which is more commonly used by oppositional forces and those critical of Putin\u2019s regime) were filled with messages from thousands of citizens about the seizure of Ukraine, the usefulness of killing prisoners, and the correctness of destroying towns and villages. Some of my own friends discussed killing people in other countries as rational and encouraged this goal.<\/p>\n<p>There was a tide of hatred towards the U.S., western governments, and the West generally. At least one hundred thousand Russians wrote<a href=\"https:\/\/vk.com\/wall-131955043_71774?ysclid=m668trx94f778049684\"> comments<\/a> under a Joe Biden social media post about U.S. support for Ukraine. These comments were a blend of threat and glee. It was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mk.ru\/politics\/2023\/10\/04\/rossiyskiy-politolog-prizval-nachat-svo-v-stranakh-pribaltiki.html?ysclid=m6692752fm875756519\">not<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pravda.ru\/news\/world\/1783322-kazakhstan\/\">only<\/a> a question of Ukraine. When the invasion began there was a common line of discussion that if only the conquest of Ukraine was successful, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova, and\/or the Baltic states would be next in line. This was openly discussed on social media, evening TV-shows, the pages of major newspapers, and, moreover, in parliament. During one Duma committee meeting, one senator I know well opined that many small countries have no right to sovereignty.<\/p>\n<p>Every evening, we could see television broadcasts\u00a0 about nuclear strikes on Berlin, London, Paris, Baku, Warsaw, and, of course, on U.S.cities.<\/p>\n<p>After three years of war, <a href=\"https:\/\/kun.uz\/ru\/42566252?ysclid=m6690d9wvg459670825\">such sentiment <\/a>has weakened, but, even though the invasion of Ukraine has proven to be long, unsuccessful and bloody, it has not disappeared. How had we arrived here? Why was such talk possible? What kind of people in Russia supported this and how many people were poisoned by such a cannibalistic ideology?<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s return to public opinion polls. Tzargrad <a href=\"http:\/\/katehon.com\/ru\/article\/socopros-instituta-cargrada-ob-otnoshenii-k-svo?ysclid=lmeo6ocv3x458587053&amp;fbclid=IwAR2ZQVHSBHKHHDZ0HF2RMXMGbdJWPuJde4Qg-nJhgKOVwzDxiLKI7sh3E-U\">estimated<\/a> a firm support for the war at 37 percent. But in fact, it\u2019s half as much.<\/p>\n<p>Infamous far-right \u201cphilosopher,\u201d Aleksandr Dugin, <a href=\"https:\/\/katehon.com\/ru\/article\/socopros-instituta-cargrada-ob-otnoshenii-k-svo?ysclid=lmeo6ocv3x458587053&amp;fbclid=IwAR2ZQVHSBHKHHDZ0HF2RMXMGbdJWPuJde4Qg-nJhgKOVwzDxiLKI7sh3E-U\">writes <\/a>that only 20 percent of Russians dream of taking Kiev or all of Ukraine. The \u201cforeign agent\u201d Levada Center put this number at 20 to 25 percent. VCIOM, which again is close to power, has this number at only about 10 to 15 percent. Like the anti-war position,the rabid pro-imperialist position does not represent the majority of people, but they are not a marginal part of society. It\u2019s quite a large group.<\/p>\n<p>This is the party of war. We are predominantly but not exclusively talking about men of the oldest age groups. What motivates them? What are they missing? Why would they want to kill people in a neighboring country and, in other countries too?<\/p>\n<p>We are approaching a very difficult issue. Scholars from Levada Center released <a href=\"https:\/\/www.litres.ru\/book\/lev-dmitrievich-gudkov\/vozvratnyy-totalitarizm-tom-1-67045194\/?ysclid=m66974xe32361396813\">a two-volume research study<\/a> about the psychology of Russian society. They write about the challenges encountered by alienated individuals who are facing a powerful state that can destroy individual lives very easily. They analyze the systematic suppression of any self-organization in Russia, including free trade-unions, environmental initiatives, movements of homeowners, and even grassroots actions in memory of the heroes of World War II.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"pullquote\">Like a TV switch, the direction of hatred has been changing for decades: liberals, gays, Ukrainians, foreign workers, atheists, homeless dogs and their defenders, Azerbaijanis, again gays, again Ukrainians, again foreign workers, and always the West. Sometimes China. The enemy at the doorstep? Democracy?\u00a0 In these conditions the country is turning into a besieged camp.<\/aside>\n<p>In this world of ruined horizontal communications, individuals cannot be sure of their own future. This leads to both disorientation and disillusionment. But the state offers a simple answer: hate. Like a TV switch, the direction of hatred has been changing for decades: liberals, gays, Ukrainians, foreign workers, atheists, homeless dogs and their defenders, Azerbaijanis, again gays, again Ukrainians, again foreign workers, and always the West. Sometimes China. The enemy at the doorstep? Democracy?\u00a0 In these conditions the country is turning into a besieged camp.\u00a0 It\u2019s a dangerous western influence meant for oafs. The forces of the state claim that there is not really democracy anywhere. They call it a venom, which poisons the brain.<\/p>\n<p>What about the friendship between peoples? Such a notion is dismissed as an illusion, a mystification, a form of hypocrisy. They claim that Russians were killed by savages in Central Asia and South Caucasus. That it was 40 years ago does not matter, what\u2019s the difference? Concerns about corruption? They acknowledge that the world is not perfect, and then claim that the struggle against corruption is only a specific tool in the struggle for power, concluding that all politicians are the same and it\u2019s the same everywhere.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, they claim, there is no difference between countries and political systems. It is seen as extremely stupid to discuss the social experience of other societies. This is the logic: There are slaves like us living there. But at least our elite have a national culture (and the top sometimes give us some benefits, some funds), while foreigners want to seize our natural resources and convert us to homosexuality.<\/p>\n<p>It seems like a caricature, but I\u2019ve always met the same argument. This is a very simple and coherent system of views, however cynical and hateful. And this is the basis for supporting the war against the world.<\/p>\n<p>Also, we must not forget about the money involved. If \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Homo_homini_lupus#:~:text=Homo%20homini%20lupus%2C%20or%20in,cruel%2C%20and%20generally%20inhuman%20qualities.\">a man is a wolf to a man<\/a>\u201d (as the old Russian proverb has it), and fighting against the enemy is a reason for pride, why not take the money and participate in a war? Wages in Russia are very low. In my town, $500 a month is considered a decent income. Many people live on only $300, and retirees typically receive only $200. But if someone signs a contract with the Defense Ministry, they will receive $2000 per month and from $10000 to $30000 as a first bonus (depending on the region from which they are recruited). Moreover, their relatives have $60,000 in case of death, and their children can go to university without fees and exams. Decent conditions!<\/p>\n<p>Wagner, the famous private military company, has a cynical slogan: \u201cnothing personal, we were paid\u201d. Recently, they organized a \u201cpatriotic lesson\u201d in one Russian school under this banner.<\/p>\n<h4>Conformists party<\/h4>\n<p>Of course, most people don\u2019t want to invite any problem with the state, but they also don\u2019t want to have anything to do with the war. They support a \u201cspecial military operation,\u201d but without a doubt they will support peace.<\/p>\n<p>They are confident that they have no chance to influence the decision of the authorities, so they formally agree with any instructions from the top. Really, they want only peace of mind. This contradiction was clearly visible during the first wave of mobilization in the autumn of 2022. The state drafted 300,000 soldiers, but another 500,000 fled Russia. After this experience the Kremlin never resorted to such risky tools again. Sixty-two percent of respondents understood or even supported the deserters. It was a cold shower for the war party.<\/p>\n<p>Now only 20 percent of Russians oppose peace with Ukraine. The conformist majority wants a normal life, without ceding \u201cnew regions\u201d but also without new conquests. The head of the pro-government VCIOM <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ru\/interview\/politics\/30\/09\/2023\/6516d4959a7947607f4970c8?from=copy\">says<\/a>: \u201cMost Russians don\u2019t want to take Kiev. If they had their way, they would not have launched a military operation.\u201d And further: &#8220;most delegate the task of formulating peace terms to the president: you decide for yourself what the conditions should be, tell us when it&#8217;s time to make peace. We will support you.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The fees for military volunteers are constantly increasing, and this is a direct proof of the state\u2019s problems with its military initiatives.<\/p>\n<h4>Deep split without deep crisis<\/h4>\n<p>Public opinion polls show that the ratio between the three above-described groups is very stable. It has not changed for three years. Why?<\/p>\n<p>First, despite expectations, the standard of living remains stable. Some strata have lost their incomes\u2014 especially retirees, employees of public utilities, education and medicine\u2014while others have benefited. The devaluation of the ruble and the fierce anti-immigrants politics have resulted in the number of foreign workers decreasing from 9 to 6.5 million people. In addition 1.5 million people are fighting at the front and about 0.8 million people left the country. At the same time, in 2024 alone at least $75 billion was poured into the military industrial complex. There is a shortage in the labor market and the wages of some parts of the working class are really growing. For example, Gazprom workers in my region now earn twice as much than before the war.The prices are rising, but the wages are rising faster. Not for everyone, but still.<\/p>\n<p>Second, the struggle at the front is a matter for volunteers. Surely, we cannot forget about the 300.000 draftees, but 70 percent of the men who are currently in Ukraine have made a decision to enlist. That\u2019s why their injury or death is not connected, in the minds of Russians, with their own fates or the fate of their relatives. It\u2019s the choice of the front-line soldiers without risks for others.<\/p>\n<p>Russians live (for now) a normal peaceful life. It\u2019s very important to understand this. The choice between war and peace now is not a choice between calm and misery. It\u2019s a moral choice. The situation will change in the near future\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/dzen.ru\/a\/Z5W-xNhPIUmcQky2?ysclid=m6hl5ci5i116198023\"> the sanctions trap<\/a> will work\u2014but not just now.<\/p>\n<h4>The calm is deceptive<\/h4>\n<p>The war against Ukraine and the possibility of peace is seen to be the property of Putin and only one part of Russian society. While Putin is president\u2014and he will be a president as long as he lives\u2014this war will continue.. The reason lies within Russia: Putin does not have a positive program for the country. External conflict is the basis of his power. It is a way to consolidate the elite and govern the people. Putin\u2019s nuclear threats seem to have subsided, postponed for now. Perhaps the war against Ukraine will enter a phase of smoldering. But as long as Putin rules in Russia, the history of external conflict will continue.<\/p>\n<p>After Putin\u2014and Russian history has shown this\u2014we will see great changes. I\u2019m sure that the collective authorities will prefer to restore relations with the West. Trade brings more benefits than war. The historical events after Stalin and Tsar Nicholas I clearly demonstrated this truth. And Putin understands this. His response is to place the veterans of the \u201cspecial military operation\u201d in the parliament and other state institutions. We see the consistent indoctrination of children\u2014not only teenagers, but even little children in the kindergartens. The Overton window of acceptability has become very wide (and wild). According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moscowtimes.eu\/2024\/07\/04\/bolshe-treti-rossiyan-odobrili-yadernii-udar-po-ukraine-a135946\">various estimates<\/a>, between 18 percent (RussianField company) and 34 percent (Levada Center) of respondents consider nuclear strikes against Ukraine possible. Moreover, 64 percent believe that a nuclear war is winnable by Russia (RussianField company).<\/p>\n<aside class=\"pullquote\">One of the reasons why I was declared a \u201cforeign agent\u201d in Russia and stripped of my civil rights was because of my public statements against this madness\u2026.The picture I have painted is challenging but not without a basis for building resistance\u2026Today we need the solidarity of all progressive forces and resistance to reaction.<\/aside>\n<p>Until recently this was absolutely unthinkable. In the Soviet Union during the Brezhnev era, and for the next 40 years, nuclear war was considered an absolute evil and the end of the human race. Such changes in the mass perception of Russian society create a threat for the future of everyone, including, of course, Russians. Russia has the greatest stock of A-bombs\u2014circa 6000.(By comparison, the U.S. has 5400, China has 350, France has 290, and the U.K. has 225.)<\/p>\n<p>One of the reasons why I was declared a \u201cforeign agent\u201d in Russia and stripped of my civil rights was because of my public statements against this madness. Of course, even the modern Russian leadership won\u2019t make a decision to use nuclear weapons, but they create a culture and conditions for future generations of the Russian ruling class to consider this a normal working scenario.<\/p>\n<p>The picture I have painted is challenging but not without a basis for building resistance to the madness and to the forces of war and destruction. Today we need the solidarity of all progressive forces and resistance to reaction . We must focus on educating people, because the current regime of imperial \u201cgreatness\u201d can cost inexpressibly more than it did eighty years ago.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"half\" \/>\n<small>Featured Image credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/File:%D0%9F%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%87%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%B0_%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2_%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D0%B1_%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%85_%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%85_%D0%A1%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%8F-6_6_%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%8F%D0%B1%D1%80%D1%8F_2021_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0.jpg\">\u0418\u0432\u0430\u043d \u0410\u0431\u0430\u0442\u0443\u0440\u043e\u0432<\/a>; modified by Tempest.<\/small><\/p>\n<p><small><em>Opinions expressed in signed articles do not necessarily represent the views of the editors or the Tempest Collective. For more information, see \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tempestmag.org\/about\/\">About Tempest Collective<\/a>.\u201d<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we approach the three year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, <strong>Oleg Shein<\/strong>, a Russian historian, and a former MP in the Russian State Duma, assesses the impact on Russian politics both now and for its future.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":365,"featured_media":13679,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[299,376,377,280],"class_list":["post-13678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article","tag-russia","tag-russian-imperialism","tag-russian-politics","tag-ukraine"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/syrian_revolution_thumbnail-4-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/365"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13678\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}