{"id":12394,"date":"2024-01-26T21:19:17","date_gmt":"2024-01-27T02:19:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tempestmag.org\/v01_2020\/staging\/?p=12394"},"modified":"2024-02-01T00:30:45","modified_gmt":"2024-02-01T05:30:45","slug":"taiwans-2024-presidential-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/2024\/01\/taiwans-2024-presidential-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Taiwan\u2019s 2024 presidential elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"dropcap\">T<\/span>he 2024 Taiwanese elections take place at a time that Taiwan has seen more international attention than ever, amidst rising United States-China tensions, and Chinese military drills that have <a href=\"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/2022\/08\/taiwan-caught-between-rival-superpowers\/\">stepped up<\/a> since the visit of then-U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Taiwanese voters have historically had to choose between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a center-left party that emerged from Taiwan\u2019s democracy movement, and the Kuomintang (KMT, also known as the Chinese Nationalist Party), which once ruled over Taiwan in an authoritarian manner during the period known as the White Terror. Since democratization, the KMT has reinvented itself as the pro-China party in Taiwanese politics, while the historically pro-independence DPP has distanced itself from this position to avoid the risk of provoking China.<\/p>\n<p>The KMT\u2019s push for closer political and economic relations with China has sometimes heretofore met with opposition from the Taiwanese public. But the DPP\u2019s eight years in power have led to rising dissatisfaction with its rule for failing to address long standing issues of economic inequality in Taiwan. That has left an opening for the rise of a new populist right in the form of the Taiwanese People\u2019s Party to pose as an alternative to both the DPP and KMT.<\/p>\n<h4>Tight election<\/h4>\n<p>After the dust settled, Lai Ching-te of the DPP won the presidential election, marking an unprecedented third consecutive term in office for the center-left party. Lai&#8217;s election victory occurs in spite of attempts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to undermine his campaign, framing the vote as a choice between war and peace.<\/p>\n<p>The KMT picked up the discourse of war and peace and instilled a sense of fear in Taiwanese civil society as the theme of their campaign. The KMT candidate, Hou You-yi, repeatedly argued that <a href=\"https:\/\/tw.news.yahoo.com\/%25E4%25BE%25AF%25E5%258F%258B%25E5%25AE%259C%25E7%25A8%25B1-%25E7%25A5%25A8%25E6%258A%2595%25E6%25B0%2591%25E9%2580%25B2%25E9%25BB%25A8%25E9%259D%2592%25E5%25B9%25B4%25E4%25B8%258A%25E6%2588%25B0%25E5%25A0%25B4-%25E8%25B3%25B4%25E6%25B8%2585%25E5%25BE%25B7-%25E5%2581%2587%25E8%25A8%258A%25E6%2581%25AF-%25E8%25AA%258D%25E7%259F%25A5%25E4%25BD%259C%25E6%2588%25B0-015120274.html\">\u201ca vote for the DPP is a vote for war.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Such discourse also circulated in the Anglophone media. Even some on the western Left joined in the chorus in <a href=\"https:\/\/newbloommag.net\/2022\/08\/16\/jacobin-taiwan-critique\/\">an odd case<\/a> of self-proclaimed radicals siding with the former authoritarian party in Taiwan. Ironically, the KMT seemed to mimic talking points from such radicals, posturing as an anti-war party.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"pullquote\">[D]iscourse from Chomsky or Code Pink were up taken up by [the KMT],\u00a0 which during the authoritarian period had been a classic example of a right-wing dictatorship backed by the US in the interests of anti-Communism.<\/aside>\n<p>In one example of this confluence, <a href=\"https:\/\/newbloommag.net\/2023\/03\/24\/anti-war-statement-response-eng\/\">a group of Taiwanese leftist scholars<\/a> issued a statement that drew on publications by Noam Chomsky, Code Pink, and the Progressive International. It uncritically dismissed threats from China and praised the KMT. The KMT\u2019s adoption of this supposed anti-war position seemed to come in the wake of this statement\u2013a strange chain of events in which discourse from Chomsky or Code Pink were up taken up by a party,\u00a0 which during the authoritarian period had been a classic example of a right-wing dictatorship backed by the US in the interests of anti-Communism.<\/p>\n<p>By contrast, the DPP\u2019s Lai had been portrayed as a \u201cpro-independence\u201d radical by the international media. It is true that in the past, he had identified himself as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2024\/01\/13\/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te\/#:~:text='Pragmatic%2520worker%2520for%2520Taiwan%2520independence'&amp;text=As%2520a%2520young%2520lawmaker%2520and,included%2520in%2520the%2520party%2520charter.\">\u201cpragmatic advocate for Taiwan independence.\u201d<\/a> But, in this race, he vowed to maintain the status quo and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.japantimes.co.jp\/news\/2024\/01\/14\/asia-pacific\/politics\/taiwan-presidential-election-analysis\/\">follow Tsai Ing-wen\u2019s path of diplomacy<\/a> and the national framework of \u201cthe Republic of China, Taiwan,\u201d rather than taking any steps toward any declaration of official independence.<\/p>\n<h4>The China fatigue factor<\/h4>\n<p>Lai\u2019s win partially showed that the fear discourse pushed by Beijing\u2019s and the KMT was no longer effective. While the KMT\u2019s fear mongering allowed it to consolidate an electoral base, it was not enough to win the presidency. The majority of people preferred the DPP\u2019s strategy of strengthening national security and maintaining the status quo of <em>de facto<\/em> sovereignty.<\/p>\n<p>However, the rise of the Taiwan People\u2019s Party (TPP) as a third party\u2014with the ex-Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je as its presidential candidate\u2014provided an alternative for those who saw both the KMT and the DPP as the establishment. The TPP presented itself as a force to build a \u201cnew political culture\u201d and push for domestic reforms, something appealing especially for the younger generations.<\/p>\n<p>The TPP\u2019s Ko won an impressive 3.7 million votes, putting him only a million votes behind the KMT\u2019s Hou You-yi\u2019s with his 4.6 million votes. Ko appears to be highly popular among young people, despite his <a href=\"https:\/\/newbloommag.net\/2024\/01\/06\/tpp-misogyny\/#:~:text=Ko%20Wen%2Dje.&amp;text=Ko%20has%20a%20long%20history,when%20not%20wearing%20make%2Dup.\">reputation for misogyny<\/a> and ideological inconsistency.<\/p>\n<p>The TPP took advantage of Taiwanese people\u2019s fatigue over the \u201cChina issue\u201d and popularized a discourse proclaiming the irrelevance of the debate over independence vs. unification. It accused the DPP of <a href=\"https:\/\/popula.com\/2019\/11\/06\/the-dried-mango-strips-of-national-doom\/\">selling \u201cdried mangos,\u201d<\/a> a slang phrase in Mandarin referring to a sense of \u201cnational doom\u201d and anxiety about Taiwan\u2019s fate faced with threats from China. The TPP\u2019s electoral base, mostly young people between the ages of 20-40, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2024\/01\/16\/most-people-in-taiwan-see-themselves-as-primarily-taiwanese-few-say-theyre-primarily-chinese\/\">identify as Taiwanese<\/a> and see China as a separate country, but do not view national sovereignty as a priority.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_12399\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12399\" style=\"width: 700px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-12399 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/chinese-war-games-in-taiwan-straits-2018.jpg\" alt=\"Photo of Chinese war games in the Taiwan Straits, 2018, which shows a group of eight navals vessels in formation.\" width=\"700\" height=\"467\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/chinese-war-games-in-taiwan-straits-2018.jpg 700w, https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/chinese-war-games-in-taiwan-straits-2018-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/chinese-war-games-in-taiwan-straits-2018-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-12399\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Chinese war games in the Taiwan Straits, 2018. Photo by NZ Defence Forces.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Ko has sometimes been labeled a \u201cpopulist,\u201d because he has adopted an anti-establishment message and positioned himself against the two major parties. He has also crafted a political persona of an everyman\u2013prone to gaffes in contrast to the slick and polished politicians from the DPP or KMT. On top of that, Ko\u2019s base seems mainly to consist of angry, disenfranchised young men who may resonate with his misogyny and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/brianhioe\/status\/1724734810697142492\">homophobia,<\/a> viewing Ko as taking a stand against \u201cpolitical correctness.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Thus, despite the DPP securing an unprecedented 3rd consecutive presidential term, the party emerges from the election with many challenges. For one, it faces the loss of the young and swing voters who chose Tsai four years ago. This time they voted for Ko and the TPP.<\/p>\n<p>While Taiwan\u2019s economy, particularly its high tech and semiconductor industry, has benefitted the high income sectors, real wages for most people, especially in the service sector, have been stagnant and housing prices continue to soar. These issues are deeply embedded in the country\u2019s neoliberal strategy and economic structure.<\/p>\n<p>All three parties raise different policies to address these issues like offering rental subsidies, lowering down payments on real estate, and building new public housing. But these are superficial measures that do not address the deep economic roots of the problems most people are experiencing. So, it\u2019s unlikely that working people will see major improvements in their living standards faced with inflation and continuous economic restructuring.<\/p>\n<h4>The rise of populism in Taiwan?<\/h4>\n<p>These are the conditions for the growth of right wing populism. Sensing that, Ko and TPP framed themselves during the campaign as a \u201csocial movement.\u201d The TPP has appropriated the rhetoric and imagery of Chinese citizens\u2019 \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/news.ltn.com.tw\/news\/politics\/breakingnews\/4542687\">White Paper Movement<\/a>\u201d in defiance of Beijing\u2019s inhuman lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>Ko also claims to <a href=\"https:\/\/udn.com\/news\/story\/123475\/7671269?from=udn-ch1_breaknews-1-0-news\">carry on the values <\/a>of the 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which the youth-led demonstrations against a trade agreement with China culminated in students occupying the Taiwanese legislature. Showing all this to be posturing, Ko actually supports <a href=\"https:\/\/newbloommag.net\/2023\/06\/26\/cssta-revival\/\">reviving that trade agreement.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ko has adopted an unclear stance on cross-strait relations. On the one hand, he promises such trade agreements and even <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2022\/07\/with-kinmen-comments-ko-wen-je-dives-into-cross-strait-debate\/\">building a bridge<\/a> connecting Taiwan\u2019s outlying islands with China. On the other hand, he declares his support for the Tsai administration\u2019s foreign policy.<\/p>\n<p>Like a classic demagogue, Ko has implied that he wants to create <a href=\"https:\/\/tw.news.yahoo.com\/%25E7%25A5%259E-%25E6%25AF%2594%25E5%2596%25BB-%25E6%259F%25AF%25E6%2596%2587%25E5%2593%25B2%25E5%2596%258A-%25E6%258A%258A%25E6%25B0%2591%25E7%259C%25BE%25E9%25BB%25A8%25E5%25BC%2584%25E5%2583%258F-%25E8%2580%25B6%25E7%25A9%258C%25E6%259C%2583-111353356.html\">a \u201creligion-like\u201d party culture.<\/a> The TPP\u2019s campaign slogan ominously proclaimed its intent to <a href=\"https:\/\/tw.news.yahoo.com\/%25E6%259F%25AF%25E6%2596%2587%25E5%2593%25B2%25E6%2595%2597%25E9%2581%25B8%25E4%25BB%258D%25E5%2596%258A4%25E5%25B9%25B4%25E5%25BE%258C-%25E8%25B4%258F%25E5%259B%259E%25E5%259C%258B%25E5%25AE%25B6-%25E9%2581%25BF%25E8%25AB%2587%25E7%25B5%2590%25E6%259E%259C%25E8%2588%2587%25E6%25B0%2591%25E8%25AA%25BF%25E7%259B%25B8%25E5%2590%258C-013700853.html\">\u201creturn the state to you.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0 After Ko\u2019s defeat, some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.taipeitimes.com\/News\/editorials\/archives\/2024\/01\/19\/2003812296\">internet influencers<\/a> spread disinformation that the election was stolen, while Ko himself remained\u00a0 ambiguous about whether he views this to have taken place.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"pullquote\">It is yet to be seen if the Ko phenomenon signifies the early phase of a wave of reaction, following a decade in which progressive political voices were relatively successful in influencing mainstream discourse.<\/aside>\n<p>Despite coming in third in the presidential election, Ko and his TPP are well positioned in the legislature. The DPP lost control of the legislature, despite Lai winning the presidency. It garnered 51 seats to the KMT\u2019s 52. As a result, neither can get legislation through the body without reaching out to the TPP, which won 8 seats.<\/p>\n<p>So, the balance of power may well be controlled by Ko\u2019s TPP, an upstart third party that hews closer to the KMT\u2019s stances on China. This puts the TPP in a position to be <a href=\"https:\/\/euroview.ecct.com.tw\/category-inside.php?id=1797\">the \u201ckingmaker\u201d<\/a> able to decide which bills pass in the legislature.<\/p>\n<p>Small parties, including the progressive ones, were wiped out. The New Power Party, which emerged after the 2014 Sunflower Movement, failed to win any seats. Nor did the Green Party Taiwan, the Taiwan Statebuilding Party, or the Obasan Alliance win any seats. The Social Democratic Party\u2019s sole candidate, Miao Poya, who was endorsed by the DPP, also failed to win in Taipei\u2019s Daan district.<\/p>\n<p>Now without any steadfast progressive third parties in the legislature, and with the TPP as a pivotal minority, it\u2019s likely that formal politics will swing to the right. Whether that happens or not will largely depend on whether the DPP restructures itself to overcome its internal problems, reengages with civil society in its four-year presidential term, and appeals to disaffected young voters.<\/p>\n<h4>Domestic versus cross-strait issues<\/h4>\n<p>Ko and the TPP achieved their successes by tapping into a sense of disenfranchisement among young people and through a political message that called for focusing on reviving the economy and avoiding cross-strait issues. Ko frames himself as beyond the traditional distinctions of KMT versus DPP policies, even if he and the TPP are closer to the KMT. Ko\u2019s run as the third candidate in an already contentious race took place <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2023\/11\/how-the-taiwan-opposition-alliance-talks-fell-apart\/\">after failed negotiations<\/a> with the KMT over a joint ticket, and the TPP\u2019s politicians are <a href=\"https:\/\/newbloommag.net\/2019\/12\/23\/tpp-pan-blue-conservative\/\">mainly drawn from former KMT politicians <\/a>or politicians from parties that split from the KMT.<\/p>\n<p>It may be that the DPP was able to hold onto power by emphasizing that it is the only party that defends Taiwanese sovereignty. But its lack of an appealing domestic message to the Taiwanese public, especially their concerns about rising social inequality, allowed for the rise of the TPP.<\/p>\n<p>Many questions remain, then, for Taiwanese society going forward. It is yet to be seen if the Ko phenomenon signifies the early phase of a wave of reaction, following a decade in which progressive political voices were relatively successful in influencing mainstream discourse\u2014even if most were gradually absorbed into the DPP as the decade went on.<\/p>\n<p>It is possible that the failure of the Left to win substantive power combined with the failure of the DPP to address social inequality may enable Ko and the TPP to consolidate an electoral base for right-wing populism. With a DPP president, a divided legislature, potential political paralysis, and growing geopolitical pressures, social and class struggles in civil society must take charge, steer the civic conversations toward progressive solutions, and build an alternative to an emergent right wing populism.<\/p>\n<p><small><em>Opinions expressed in signed articles do not necessarily represent the views of the editors or the Tempest Collective. For more information, see \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/about\/\">About Tempest Collective<\/a>.\u201d<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n<p><small>Featured image credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/ssave\/39159305120\">Flikr<\/a>; modified by Tempest.<small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Brian Hioe<\/strong> and <strong>Wen Liu<\/strong> analyze the recent national elections in Taiwan and their significance for domestic politics\u00a0 and the country\u2019s relationship with China.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":295,"featured_media":12404,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[265,548,315],"class_list":["post-12394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article","tag-china","tag-populism","tag-taiwan"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/taiwan_elections_report_feature_card_720.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/295"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12394"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12394\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12404"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tempestmag.org\/test02\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}